MOScout Weekender: Stinnett Fundy - Hallway Sees Withholds Coming - Who Won the Week and more…

Republicans Rally for Stinnett

Facing a possible primary in Senate 30 next year, Rep. Melanie Stinnett has put together a big fundraiser for later this month, showing she’s not wasting anytime.

The fundy is chaired by Sally Hargis and Floor Leader Alex Riley with “featured hosts” Auditor Scott Fitzpatrick and Attorney General Andrew Bailey.

Among the host committee: Caleb & Rachel Arthur, Bruce and Tammy Caison, Will Cox, Aileen Dressler, Mark and Meggan Hartman, Curtis Jared, Phil Melugin, Ryan MacDonald, Mary Schrag, Tim & Traci Garrison, Nikki Holden, Steve Prange, Darrell Proctor, Dr. Kory Scullawl, Dr. Tim Swearengin, Sean & Siobhan Thouvenot, and Dr. Jody & Sandy Vance.

See the invite here.

MOScout’s Hallway Index: Withholds on Tap?

I asked lobbyists, “What's the likelihood that Kehoe implements budget withholds in the next fiscal year?”  22 replies…

RESULTS

1. Very likely… 40.9%

2. Somewhat likely… 50%

3. Somewhat unlikely… 9.1%

4. Very unlikely… 0%

Sample of Comments

·       DESE will either see money vetoed, or withheld, and deservedly so.

·       I put "somewhat unlikely" because "withholds" aren't as easy as they used to be.

·       Withholds are the rule, the last few budget years have been the exception.

·       If the money isn’t there, he will have no choice.

·       This appears to be the path Missouri is on for the next few years. Fed money is drying up, tax revenue receipts are slowing and tax cuts all hitting at the same time make for tight budgets.

·       I don't see how he doesn't with this trajectory of spending and tax cutting.

·       If he signs the capital gains tax cut he has to make withholds. The Gov's folks have to be getting an education in this moment of what those tax cuts will mean for the state budget bottom line going forward and it almost certainly will necessitate withholds or line-item vetoes.

·       With the court case from the Nixon administration withholds are a little tricky. I would expect a lot of line-item vetoes!

·       Tough question to answer not knowing the amt of his vetoes. If few vetoes and revenues remain flat, that will require Gov to use the state’s savings account (fund balance) to backfill. That is not sustaining. If Missouri’s revenue trends back up, that is a different story - but Cap Gains elimination is another one-time reset that we will have to grow out of - somewhat likely.

Remington/MOScout Poll

No poll this week.

Who Won the Week?

MO Dems – As pissed as they were at the end of regular session, the entire special session was dedicated to investing over a billion dollars solely in their districts.

Cardinals – With methodical muteness, the Cards played stowaways during special session, piggybacking a future massive Busch stadium upgrade while avoiding the bad press aimed at “welfare for billionaires.”

Rudy Veit – Strong kick-off week for his state senate campaign, with the incumbent showing up for him, and a $250,000 starter check.

Peter Kinder – Deftly turns back an ill-advised effort at the Republican State Committee meeting to “condemn” Speaker Jon Patterson for voting against HJR 73.

Bill Eigel – He’s no longer in the Senate, but as long as he has a Twitter account, he’ll still be pulling strings and pushing buttons when it comes to the Freedom Caucus.

Find a downloadable version here.

Gubby Appt

Press release: Governor Mike Kehoe announced the appointment of Derek Winters as the Transition Director to assist in the implementation of oversight of the St. Louis Metropolitan Police Department (SLMPD) to a citizen-led board of police commissioners, as authorized under House Bill (HB) 495.  In this role, Winters will work closely with City of St. Louis officials, the SLMPD, the Missouri Department of Public Safety (DPS), the Office of the Attorney General, and the Office of the Governor to ensure an orderly and responsible transition to the citizen-led board, which will assume control no later than July 1, 2026. His efforts will focus on the practical steps needed to ensure continuity of operations and minimize any disruptions to the residents of the City of St. Louis.

·       Derek Winters, a St. Louis City native, currently serves as Chief Operating Officer at KNOWiNK, a leading election technology firm.

$5K+ Contributions

Missourians for Fair Taxation - $50,000 from Missouri REALTORS.

Missouri American Water Company Employees Political Action Committee - $15,000 from G & S Construction and Farms, Inc.

Missouri American Water Company Employees Political Action Committee - $15,000 from Goodwin Brothers.

Missouri American Water Company Employees Political Action Committee - $15,000 from Loellke Plumbing, Inc. (Jerseyville, IL).

eMailbag on Kehoe State of Emergency

You can declare an emergency now based on imagined future fears?

Birthdays

Happy birthday to Rep. Dirk Deaton.

Sunday: Martin Rucker.